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HOTEL BUSINESS REVIEW

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2025 Hotel Construction Outlook: Rates, Risk, and The Rise of Private Credit

By Shivan Perera Managing Director of CRE, Bridge Marketplace | August 2025

How Will Rates Impact Hotel Construction

Most experts predict that the Feds will move rates downward in the second half of 2025 however the cuts are expected to be gradual. The cautious approach by the Feds could lead to ongoing volatility in interest rates throughout the year.

The direction of interest rates will depend on a mix of economic indicators and policy decisions. If inflation continues to ease, it may cause the Federal Reserve to lower its benchmark rate, which typically brings down other borrowing costs. However, ongoing and volatile inflationary pressures, such as those caused by tariffs, could potentially lead the Fed to delay cuts. Economic growth also plays a role. A slowdown could push the Fed to cut rates, while strong employment data might cause it to hold steady. Mortgage rates, which closely follow the 10-year Treasury yield, are further influenced by broader fiscal policies and concerns over government deficits, which can drive long-term yields and mortgage rates higher.

In the hospitality industry we are seeing a mix of pent-up anticipation and optimism that rates will move in the right direction. The question that remains to be seen is whether the shift is going to have a meaningful impact on the robust US hotel construction pipeline.

Construction Pipeline and Market Liquidity

By the end of 2024, the U.S. hotel construction pipeline exceeded 6,300 projects across all stages a figure that reflects unprecedented growth compared to recent years. The most significant surge was in early planning, suggesting that sponsors remain at least cautiously optimistic about the future of hotel development (Construction Today ). Whether this momentum is primarily driven by expectations of falling interest rates and how cost variables such as taxes, insurance, labor etc remains to be seen. However, industry reports point to a clear uptick in both ground-up development and major renovations, fueled by continued economic resilience, US migration patterns and strategic investment in markets where RevPAR performance supports new supply.

In 2025, banks are selectively financing hotel construction deals, though with far more scrutiny than in prior cycles. Traditional lenders have re-entered the space, but they’re prioritizing experienced borrowers, top-performing locations, and conservative capital structures. Loan-to-value ratios are tighter, and banks are generally unwilling to stretch beyond 60% of project cost. As a result, developers can rarely rely on bank financing alone to close the gap.

To round out the capital stack, sponsors are increasingly incorporating mezzanine debt, C-PACE financing, and private credit solutions. Banks typically provide senior construction loans at rates ranging from 6.5% to 9%, while alternative lenders fill the remaining gap with mezz or PACE tranches priced at higher yields. The result is a blended cost of capital in the 7–9% range which is manageable for projects with strong fundamentals and sound execution plans. In this environment, success hinges not just on capital availability, but on a developer’s ability to structure and navigate a multi-tiered financing strategy.

Private Lenders are Becoming Essential

While banks have traditionally been the most cost-effective source of construction capital, today’s market dynamics make them a less viable option for many developers. Bank lending has tightened significantly in the wake of rising interest rates, stricter regulatory oversight, and ongoing liquidity constraints. Hospitality assets face heightened scrutiny due to pandemic-era performance volatility, deferred maintenance, and depressed valuations. As a result, even well-qualified sponsors are finding that bank financing is either unavailable or burdened with overly conservative terms that slow down execution.

In this environment, non-bank lenders, despite higher headline rates, offer a strategic advantage. They move faster, underwrite more flexibly, and focus on the real asset value and business plan, rather than just sponsor liquidity or trailing performance. For hotel construction and conversion deals, where timing is critical, brand commitments have milestones, and construction windows are tight, speed and certainty of close are often more valuable than a few hundred basis points of savings.

Additionally, many of today’s private debt providers structure their loans around the business plan itself offering interest-only terms, flexible prepayment, and built-in interest reserves that protect the sponsor’s cash flow through stabilization. The cost of delay, lost brand incentives, or missed market timing far outweighs the marginal rate premium. In short, while short-term debt from private lenders may come at a higher price, it often delivers a better risk-adjusted outcome by enabling sponsors to control the asset, execute the plan, and refinance into permanent capital once stabilized.

With traditional banks pulling back from hospitality lending, private lenders have stepped in to fill a critical gap, particularly for construction, conversion, and reposition deals. While these lenders typically charge higher interest rates, they offer speed, flexibility, and a more pragmatic approach to underwriting. That said, private capital is still highly selective. Understanding what these lenders look for is essential for any hotel developer seeking to secure funding in today’s environment.

Sponsorship Strength Remains the Foundation

As with any cycle or deal the most important factor is the sponsor behind the deal. Private lenders look for developers with a demonstrated ability to execute, ideally with experience similar in nature of their project. A strong personal balance sheet also matters. Even if the budget includes a contingency or interest reserve, lenders want to know that the sponsor has the financial capacity to absorb unforeseen cost overruns or timeline delays. Just as critical is the sponsor’s alignment with the project: meaningful equity contributions, personal guarantees (when applicable), and day-to-day involvement send a strong message to the lender, all of which indicate commitment to the project.

Brand is a Determining Factor in Credit

A recognized hotel brand can significantly de-risk a construction project but not all flags are created equal. Some offer stronger reservation systems and drive a higher percentage of direct bookings, reducing reliance on OTAs that erode operating margins. Others command higher per-key valuations, supporting stronger appraisals and exit strategies. Some boast lower operating costs, making them more attractive to institutional investors. Additionally, brands often cater to specific guest segments with distinct behavior patterns. Choosing the right flag isn’t just about name recognition, it’s a strategic decision that influences underwriting, investor and lender perception, and long-term asset performance.

Importance of Location

Location remains a focal point in hotel underwriting (and all CRE). Lenders continue to prioritize visibility, accessibility, and proximity to key demand drivers whether it’s an airport, hospital, university, or major business district. But beyond physical location, lenders are increasingly focused on product-market fit. The chosen brand and flag need to make strategic sense within the context of the local market.

It’s not enough to simply pick a well-known brand, lenders are looking for thoughtful positioning and evidence that the sponsor understands who they’re building for. This level of insight helps lenders assess whether the project’s projected occupancy and average daily rate (ADR) are achievable, and whether the market fundamentals can support long-term performance.

Furthermore, with volatility and stagnant growth in many geographies, there are fewer and fewer markets that are feasible to develop in. In the preliminary review stage, a deal may seem as if it may pencil out, however lenders often will utilize 3rd party construction review firms to ensure that the construction bids are accurate to what a GC can deliver in a particular market.

A Transparent and Balanced Capital Stack

Private lenders typically lend up to 70 percent loan-to-cost range and expect the sponsor to contribute meaningful equity that keeps them tied to the project. They’re generally comfortable with additional layers of capital such as mezzanine loans, PACE financing, or preferred equity but will want to carefully review intercreditor agreements and repayment structures. Clear documentation and transparent alignment among capital providers are key to getting lender buy-in. Often capital stacks may be facilitated by the lender or brokers to ensure the right partners are brought together.

Exit Strategy is Non-Negotiable

Because private lenders operate on short-term horizons, typically 12 to 36 months, they place a high premium on a well-articulated exit strategy. Whether the plan involves refinancing into long-term agency, conventional, SBA, or a sale to another investor, lenders want to understand how and when they will be repaid. They will often model exit scenarios based on stabilized debt yields usually targeting a minimum of 10 to 12 percent so it’s important that your business plan supports this level of performance within a reasonable timeframe and considers realistic refinance rates that are in line with market and not premised on rate speculation.

Doing the Math: Why Higher Construction Loan Rates Aren’t Deal-Killers

In today’s capital markets, borrowers often balk at the double-digit interest rates quoted by private lenders for construction financing. It’s understandable rates north of 10% can feel steep, especially when compared to the single-digit rates banks offered in prior cycles. But for hotel developers, focusing solely on interest rates can be misleading. When structured properly, higher-cost construction debt has a limited impact on the overall project IRR, particularly when interest is only paid on drawn proceeds and the project stays on schedule. Headline rates aren’t as punitive as they may seem, private capital can be the right strategic choice in today’s lending environment.

The True Cost of Drawn Proceeds

Unlike permanent loans, construction debt is drawn down gradually. Capital is released in tranches as work progresses, which means the borrower only pays interest on the amount disbursed, not the full commitment.

Take, for example, a $20 million construction loan at 12% interest-only over an 18-month construction period. If draws are distributed evenly over time, the average loan balance might be closer to $10 million. In this case, the total interest expense is approximately $1.8 million, not the $3.6 million suggested by the full loan amount. When averaged over the construction period, the realized cost of capital falls closer to 6–7%, making it far more manageable within the context of the broader project economics.

Many development proformas miss this nuance. They tend to model interest against the full loan amount, which overstates the impact of financing costs and underappreciates the flexibility and certainty that private lenders provide.

Short-Term Capital, Long-Term Payoff

Construction loans are, by design, short-term instruments. In most hotel deals, they remain in place for 24 to 36 months, just long enough to fund construction and early-stage ramp-up. Once the hotel is operational and nearing stabilization, the debt is typically eligible for permanent financing or paid off through a sale.

With average investment horizons in hospitality ranging from five to seven years, the construction loan is merely a temporary cost of execution. In that context, the incremental interest expense is often dwarfed by the potential opportunity cost of delaying a project, whether due to rising construction costs, expiring brand approvals, or missed seasonal demand cycles. Waiting for a marginally cheaper loan often results in far greater financial losses than moving forward with higher-cost, reliable capital.

What Actually Moves the IRR Needle

Despite the emphasis on rate, a hotel sponsor’s internal rate of return is far more sensitive to other variables. Among them are the total equity basis, execution risk during construction, cost overruns, mis-budgeting working capital and eventual exit valuation. A sponsor who can deliver the project on time and on budget, particularly under a strong flag, in a well-positioned market will often still achieve target IRR’s even with a 12% construction loan.

What’s more critical is structuring the loan correctly from the outset. That typically means incorporating an interest reserve, building in realistic contingency, and aligning the debt service schedule with the project’s ramp-up period. Provided there is an accurate cost basis in place from the outset, the temporary cost of capital becomes a small price to pay for timely delivery and long-term value creation.

Certainty and Partnership Make up the Competitive Edge

In today’s market, certainty of execution is often more valuable than cost of capital. Private lenders offer fast decisions, streamlined closing timelines, and tailored loan structures that match the realities of hotel development. For sponsors managing franchise deadlines, entitlement windows, and construction resource constraints, that reliability can unlock significant competitive advantages.

While the sticker shock of a double-digit construction rate is real, the broader context reveals a different picture. The true cost is lower than it seems, the time savings are measurable, and the impact on IRR is often negligible especially when weighed against the benefits of getting the project financed and delivered on schedule.

When managing multiple projects across different stages, entitlements, brand approvals, contractor timelines, and site work, time doesn’t just kill deals, it kills momentum. Private lenders excel in this environment, offering faster decisions, fewer layers of bureaucracy, and far more predictable closings. Unlike traditional banks, which often take months and may re-trade terms late in the process, private lenders are built for execution. They understand construction risk, underwrite to the business plan, and often fund within weeks allowing developers to maintain velocity and hit critical development milestones across a broader pipeline.

Another major advantage is the ability to form programmatic relationships. For developers with an active pipeline, sourcing capital on a one-off basis for every deal becomes inefficient and burdensome. A strong relationship with a private lender means having a capital partner who knows your track record, underwrites your platform, and is prepared to finance multiple projects under a consistent framework. This streamlines documentation, reduces diligence friction, and gives developers the ability to plan with confidence whether they’re executing three deals a year or ten.

In Conclusion

As we look ahead, much of the hotel construction market’s trajectory will hinge on the path of interest rates. While most forecasts expect the Federal Reserve to begin easing rates in the second half of 2025, any cuts are likely to be slow and deliberate. This cautious approach may lead to continued volatility throughout the year, making it difficult for developers to time the market with precision. For now, the consensus in the hospitality sector is one of guarded optimism, there’s hope that lower rates will provide a tailwind, but no guarantee that those shifts will meaningfully accelerate project starts. In this environment, developers must continue building capital stacks that work in today’s rate climate, rather than waiting for tomorrow’s.

For developers with a real pipeline not just one-off projects, capital efficiency isn’t about the cheapest rate, it’s about the most reliable capital source. Private lenders offer that reliability. They move quickly, scale with you, and build structures around the realities of hotel development.

Today securing financing is less about rate shopping and more about assembling a thoughtful, creditworthy capital stack. Successful developers are engaging local or relationship-based lenders early, supplementing traditional financing with structured alternatives, and leveraging their track records to push deals through the pipeline. For hotel projects, especially, construction capital is available, but it takes a strategic, multi-tranche approach to bring it together.

Mr. Perera

Shivan Perera is a commercial real estate finance professional with over a decade of experience in structured finance, capital markets, and sales strategy. He currently serves as Managing Director at Bridge, a hospitality-focused mortgage platform, where he oversees originations and capital partnerships across hotel construction, conversion, and bridge lending. Mr. Perera began his career in business banking before going on to lead originations and sales strategy for a national debt fund specializing in middle-market hospitality assets. He also headed the participations desk at a credit union service organization (CUSO), facilitating nationwide CRE lending partnerships and loan participations across a broad network of credit unions. With deep expertise in hotel/CRE financing, multi-layer capital structuring, and institutional investor engagement, he is a frequent advisor to sponsors and lenders in the hospitality industry.

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HotelExecutive reserves the right to fully cooperate with any law enforcement authorities or court order requesting or directing HotelExecutive to disclose the identity or other information regarding any user or member alleged by any governmental entity to be using HotelExecutive or any Content or materials available in, at, through or in association with HotelExecutive in violation of any law or regulation, or in violation of this Agreement, including, without limitation, the posting of e-mail messages, or publishing or otherwise making available any such materials. By accepting this agreement you waive and hold harmless HotelExecutive from any claims resulting from any action by HotelExecutive during, or as a result of, its investigations, and from any actions taken as a consequence of investigations by either HotelExecutive or law enforcement authorities

10. APPLICABLE LAWS, VENUE, JURISDICTION & MANDATORY ARBITRATION

If any provision(s) of this Agreement is held by a court of competent jurisdiction to be contrary to law, then such provision(s) shall be construed, as nearly as possible, to reflect the intentions of the parties with the other provisions remaining in full force and effect. HotelExecutive's failure to exercise or enforce any right or provision of this Agreement shall not constitute a waiver of such right or provision unless acknowledged and agreed to by HotelExecutive in writing. The section titles in this Agreement are solely used for the convenience of the parties and have no legal or contractual significance. This Agreement may be assigned in whole or in part by HotelExecutive. This Agreement may not be assigned in any manner by you without the express, prior written permission of HotelExecutive.

Any and all disputes or controversies of any kind, including but not limited to any performance, duty, obligation or liability arising under or related to this Agreement which are not first resolved informally, shall be determined by binding arbitration in San Francisco, California, in accordance with the rules of the American Arbitration Association. The final award in any such arbitration proceeding shall be subject to entry as a judgment by any court or competent jurisdiction, provided that such judgment does not conflict with the terms and provisions hereof. The jurisdiction of the arbiter (or arbiters) with respect to legal matters shall be limited only by the statutory and common law of the State of California and the United States.

Notwithstanding the foregoing, any and all disputes, which the parties cannot informally resolve, regarding the scope of issues or matter with the jurisdiction of the arbitrator, shall be resolved by a separate dispute resolution process whereby HotelExecutive, in its sole discretion shall elect the dispute to be resolved by either (1) a court of competent jurisdiction in the State of California or (2) a panel of three new arbitrators.

This Agreement shall be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of the State of California notwithstanding any conflict of laws provisions. You and HotelExecutive agree that the venue for all legal disputes, controversies, actions of any kind arising under or related to this Agreement shall be San Francisco, California. You and HotelExecutive further agree that in case of any litigation regarding this Agreement, you irrevocably and unconditionally (i) consent to submit to the exclusive jurisdiction of the state and federal courts in the County of San Francisco, California for any litigation or dispute arising out of or relating to this Agreement, (ii) agree not to commence any litigation arising out of or relating to this Agreement except in the California Courts, (iii) agree not to plead or claim that such litigation brought therein has been brought in an inconvenient forum, and (iv) agree the California Courts represent the exclusive jurisdiction for all litigation relating to this Agreement.

11. MEMBERSHIP FEES

Hotel Business Review Subscriptions

If you choose to purchase a subscription, member subscription payments can be made in U.S. Dollars, as well as a variety of international currencies. Membership terms are Annual Recurring, and Monthly Recurring. The Annual Recurring subscription is an annual commitment and subscribers will be charged each consecutive billing cycle. Annual Recurring subscriptions can be cancelled after the first billing cycle and within 30-days of the billing date for a full refund. Monthly Recurring subscriptions are ongoing and subscribers will be charged each consecutive monthly billing cycle. Monthly Recurring subscriptions can be cancelled after the first month and within 7 days of the monthly billing cycle for a full refund.

12. PAYMENT AUTHORIZATION

Payment for the services provided to you in, at, through or in association with HotelExecutive may be made by automatic credit card, debit card, direct debit, bankwire or Paypal and other approved payment means offered in, at, through or in association with HotelExecutive, and you hereby authorize HotelExecutive and its agents to transact such payments on your behalf.

You hereby authorize HotelExecutive's Internet Payment Service Provider to charge your credit card to pay for your membership to HotelExecutive. You further authorize HotelExecutive's Internet Payment Service Provider to charge your credit card for any and all purchases of products, services in association with HotelExecutive. You agree to be personally liable for all charges incurred by you in association with your access or other use of any content provided by HotelExecutive or any third party in association with HotelExecutive. You acknowledge and agree that your liability for all such charges shall continue after termination of your access or any type of membership arrangement with HotelExecutive.

In the event that you have chosen to have your membership automatically rebilled, unless and until you notify HotelExecutive that you wish to cancel or terminate your membership to HotelExecutive, you hereby agree and authorize HotelExecutive's Internet Payment Service Provider to automatically renew your membership to HotelExecutive on a continuing basis and to charge your credit card (or other payment means you have selected) to pay for the ongoing cost of your membership. You hereby further authorize HotelExecutive's Internet Payment Service Provider to charge your credit card (or other approved payment means you have selected) for any and all purchases of products, services and entertainment provided to in, at, through or in association with HotelExecutive.

13. PRIVACY POLICY

The following is the Privacy Policy for HotelExecutive

We can be reached via telephone, email, or online at our contact page. When you visit our site we do not log any information regarding your domain or email address. Information Sharing: We do not share user information with any third parties other than via press release distribution as described below.

Hotel Newswire is a newswire service that distributes press releases on behalf of our users. If you decide to submit a press release for distribution through our system we will transmit your entire press release including any personal information therein contained to our media contacts and online distribution points including search engines. This is the only redistribution of your information that we engage in. Your submission of press releases through our system indicates consent with this policy. The information we collect during your registration process is used to notify users about updates to our service and inform users of any special events hosted by Hotel Newswire. This information is not shared with other organizations for commercial or non-commercial purposes.

Cookies: Our system requires the use of cookies to enable the user to log back into our website to access information from the newswire, without having to log in each time using the required username and password.

If you do not want to receive email from us in the future, please let us know by following instructions included in our communication with you. Users who supply us with telephone numbers online may receive telephone contact from us regarding their account, or informing them of new products and services available on the HotelExecutive website. If you do not wish to receive such telephone calls, please edit your account and remove your phone number from your account profile. This can be done from your user account menu.

Ad Servers: We do not partner with or have any relationship with any ad server companies. From time to time, we may use customer information for new uses not previously disclosed in our privacy notice. If our information practices change at any time, we will post the policy changes to our website to notify you of these changes and provide you with the ability to opt out of these new uses. If you are concerned about how your information is used, you should check back at our website periodically.

Upon request we provide site visitors with access to all information (including proprietary information) that we maintain about them. Users can access this information by logging in to their account.

Security: We always use industry-standard encryption technologies while transferring and receiving user data exchanged with our site. We have appropriate security measures in place in our physical facilities to protect against the loss, misuse, or alteration of information that we have collected from you on our site. We do not store credit card information in our systems.

If you feel that this site is not following its stated information policy, you may contact us.

David Wiborg
Vaughn Davis
Robert O'Halloran
Philip  Ballard
Sanat Patel
Diana Dobin
Jacques-Olivier Chauvin
Frank Speranza
Paulina Burbano De Lara
Robert Midyette
Danny Williams
Walt J. Leger
Coming up in March 1970...